Premiership Prediction
1. Manchester City2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Manchester United
5. Liverpool
6. Tottenham
7. Everton
8. Norwich
9. Swansea
10. Newcastle
11. Aston Villa
12. Southampton
13. Fulham
14. West Ham
15. Cardiff
16. West Brom
17. Sunderland
18. Hull
19. Stoke
20. Crystal Palace
The 2013-14 season could be one of the most unpredictable in years with several new managers in place while three major transfer sagas look set to continue right until the end of the transfer window. These transfers could have a significant effect on the title race this season but as things stand the premiership title is most likely going to be between Chelsea and Man City.
Man City under new manager, Manuel Pellegrini, have so far made the best transfer signings of the summer in Navas, Jovetic, Negredo and Fernandinho. Jesus Navas was a snip at 15m, half what Sevilla were demanding for him just a year ago. One of the top wingers in the world, Navas will add pace and unpredictability to City's attack, giving it a dimension it lacked last season. Stevan Jovetic is a player with huge creative potential and will provide an alternative to Aguero and Silva playing behind the main striker. He has had injury problems in the past but if he can stay fit, he can become a key player. Alvaro Negredo, who also joined from Sevilla, is overpriced. City turned to Negredo when Napoli refused to lower their asking price for Edinson Cavani but Negredo is a poor alternative. He is a decent player but is unlikely to displace Aguero and Dzeko as the main strikers. Fernandinho was also overpriced at 30m, but he will bolster the City midfield and give Yaya Toure the freedom to roam and attack more.
Manuel Pellegrini, who had an excellent record in Spain, managing Villarreal, Real Madrid and Malaga will set the team out to attack, most likely in his favoured 4-3-3 formation. The signing of Navas and Jovetic will help the team fit the formation. If City can sign the defender they need to back up the excellent Kompany and Nastasic, it will be very hard to bet against them winning the league.
Chelsea have brought back Jose Mourinho, who of course has won league titles with Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid, as well as two Champions Leagues. They may have to wait this season though as the squad is not quite as strong as City's yet. It will be interesting to see what formation Chelsea utilise this season. Mourinho has generally favoured variations on a 4-3-3 during his career, while Chelsea fielded a 4-2-3-1 last season and it remains to be seen if Chelsea have the right players for Mourinho. This is a very different team from the one he left in 2007. John Terry and Frank Lampard, the cornerstones of his side are both now past it and no longer first choice. With Ryan Bertrand challenging Ashley Cole at left back, goalkeeper Petr Cech is the only guaranteed starter from Mourinho's first spell at the club.
Of their new signings, Marco VanGinkel looks promising and is likely to be a long term replacement for Lampard. But he is still very young and it is too early to expect too much from him. Andre Schurrle is a puzzling signing, he seems overpriced and it is difficult to see where he would fit into the team. His favoured position is behind a main striker, but those positions in a 4-2-3-1 are held by the trio of Mata, Hazard and Oscar who are all better players than him. While if Mourinho goes with a 4-3-3 formation, he will most likely drop Mata into midfield and bring in winger Kevin DeBruyne. Chelsea do need a striker as Fernando Torres doesn't seem up to the task, while Mourinho doesn't seem to like Demba Ba and Romelu Lukaku is still too raw. Chelsea are trying to sign Wayne Rooney, although whether he is the kind of striker they need is questionable. They have also been linked with Samuel Eto'o who would seem a better fit although at the age of 32 he would only be a short term solution. But even without a new striker, galvanised by the return of Mourinho, Chelsea should have enough to sustain a title challenge.
Arsenal have had a frustrating off season. They made a mistake in declaring their hand at the start of the summer. By announcing that the club had lots of money to spend, they encouraged selling clubs to raise their prices. Hence their first main target, Gonzalo Higuain saw his price raised from 23m to 32m and subsequently he joined Napoli. Arsenal have been linked with any number of players without seeming to even come close to signing any of them. If they are to progress this has to change in the next couple of weeks. They still need a goalkeeper, a centre back, a defensive midfielder and a striker, while a right back and winger wouldn't go amiss.
They now seem close to signing defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo who would be an excellent addition. If Arsenal can sign the goalkeeper and defender they desperately need they should be able to maintain their top-four status. But if they could complete a deal for Luis Suarez, he might be the extra piece that pushes the club to a title challenge.
Manchester United are the big unknown quantity this season. They begin a new era after the retirement of manager Alex Ferguson and the appointment of David Moyes as his replacement. Ferguson had the job for 27 years and everything about the team was controlled by him. Its a huge change for the club and it could take time to adjust. David Moyes worked wonders on a small budget at Everton, slowly building a very effective squad. Manchester United is a whole other level and it remains to be seen if Moyes is up to the job. He lacks experience having never managed a team in the Champions League, a competition United will be expected to try and win year in year out.
United have given Moyes a six year contract which suggests they have full faith in his abilities and that he will be given time to grow into the job. Moyes handling of the Wayne Rooney transfer saga so far though has been an inauspicious start, with Moyes doing nothing to dampen speculation that Rooney would be sold. Meanwhile, Moyes' attempts to strengthen United's midfield have so far been unsuccessful. Midfield is an obvious weakness in the team since Scholes has retired, Giggs will turn 40 in November, Anderson has failed to live up to his potential, Carrick, despite a good 2012-13, is generally rather pedestrian while Cleverly has potential but is unproven yet. United put all their efforts into trying to sign Cesc Fabregas, who always seemed likely to turn them down. They have now turned their attention to Marouane Fellaini but his price has now gone up since a clause in his contract expired in July. So Moyes still has some work to do in the transfer window. But he will also have to contend with a vicious fixture list that sees United play Chelsea, Liverpool and City in their opening five matches. And with City enjoying a relatively easy start to the season there is a strong possibility that United will be playing catch up already by October.
At Liverpool, Brendan Rodgers has made a couple of decent signings this summer although arguably they haven't strengthened the team. They have replaced a very good keeper Pepe Reina with another, younger very good keeper Simon Mignolet. Letting Reina leave on loan was a strange decision although it suggests that Reina will be going to Barcelona next summer when they will need to replace the departing Victor Valdes. Kolo Toure joined on a free transfer to replace Jamie Carragher. Carragher retired and his experience and leadership will be a big loss to Liverpool. Toure has plenty of experience himself, but is only a short term replacement and a younger signing would have made more sense.
Upfront, Liverpool have signed two Spaniards, Iago Aspas and Luis Alberto. Both players have good goalscoring records from the Spanish second division, but Alberto has never played in the top flight while Aspas just has one season at that level. It will be interesting to see how much they can contribute at this stage especially with so much competition for places in attack.
Of course the future of star striker Luis Suarez will have an influence on this. Suarez has been pushing for a transfer all summer, saying he wants to play in the Champions League. Initially he also said he wanted to leave England, claiming he was being hounded by the media and ostracised by the FA but he changed tack when Arsenal seemed to be the only club interested. Arsenal have had three bids for Suarez rejected so far, with Liverpool determined not to sell, but their resolve could be tested if Arsenal raise their bid over 50m. Suarez's troubled disciplinary record makes him a risky signing, although he is undoubtedly one of the worlds most talented strikers and deserves to be playing in the Champions League. Liverpool cannot offer him Champions League football this season, although they can justifiably claim that with Suarez on board they could qualify for next season.
This aim would be helped if they can make the marquee signing they have been chasing all summer. So far Liverpool have failed as they were gazumped by Borussia Dortmund for their first target Henrikh Mhiktaryan, while Diego Costa has chosen to stay at Atletico Madrid. Their current target, Christian Eriksen has stated that he would only leave Ajax for another club in the Champions League. If Liverpool can hold onto Suarez and he knuckles down they should get fifth place but a big marquee signing could help them challenge for the top four. If they sell Suarez and fail to adequately replace him, or Suarez stays but sulks at not getting his move, Liverpool could struggle especially as they haven't strengthened their midfield or defence.
Tottenham are in a similar position to Liverpool, just outside the top four and struggling to hold onto their star player, in their case Gareth Bale. Real Madrid are after Bale and rumours of a bid of 100m or more are circulating. Like Suarez, Bale wants Champions League football and like Liverpool, Tottenham will claim that they can offer that next season if he stays. Last season, they were too reliant on Bale to win games for them and he scored many crucial goals for them. Manager Andres Villas Boas has attempted to relieve the pressure on Bale by signing Spanish striker Roberto Soldado and Moroccan winger Nacer Chadli. Soldado is a very good player but might need time to adjust to the Premiership, while Chadli will presumably play understudy to Bale on the left wing. Tottenham have also bolstered their midfield with two excellent signings, Paulinho and Etienne Capoue. These signings should see Tottenham at least challenge for a top four place, whether Bale stays or not could prove the difference in whether they are successful or not. At the moment it looks like Bale is leaving so sixth place looks likely.
Outside the top six are a number of teams in midtable, too good for relegation but not good enough for a European challenge.
Everton under new manager Roberto Martinez have made a couple of decent signings and if they can hold onto their star players should be good enough to finish as the best of the rest.
Norwich could surprise a lot of people this season as they have made a number of excellent signings. Lack of goals has been a problem since they were promoted in 2011, but the signings of Ricky VanWolfswinkel and Gary Hooper should sort that.
Swansea, led by the excellent Michael Laudrup look set to continue their steady progress. Playing in the Europa League this season could prove a distraction but they should still be good enough for a top-10 finish.
Newcastle will be looking to recover their form of 2011-12 and avoid the injury problems of last season. They still have arguably the strongest squad outside the big six, but lack of goals could be a problem again this season.
After a nervy first season under Paul Lambert, Aston Villa should be more comfortable this season. Christian Benteke deciding to stay was a huge boost and a couple of good signings mean they should progress to mid-table security.
Southampton, Fulham and West Ham should also finish comfortably in mid-table having made good signings this summer.
The remaining six sides will be fighting relegation. Cardiff look the strongest of the promoted sides and have made a couple of very impressive signings. They lacked goals last season though so releasing their top scorer was a risky move. They have put a lot of faith in new striker Andreas Cornelius and will need him to hit the ground running. If he doesn't work out Cardiff will be in trouble.
West Brom had an excellent 2011-12 far exceeding expectations but second-season syndrome could strike for manager Steve Clarke. Nobody will underestimate them this season. Meanwhile they have lost two of their main strikers including their top scorer, Romelu Lukaku. Their new signings Nicholas Anelka and Diego Lugano are both well past their best so this season will see West Brom struggle.
Sunderland are an enigma, they could finish anywhere between seventh and twentieth. Manager Paolo DiCanio is a loose cannon and anything could happen around him. His methods have been controversial and if the players don't respond well to them Sunderland will be in trouble. They have also made a lot of new signings this summer and they could take time to settle down together. QPR last season showed that buying so many new players at the one time can be a recipe for disaster. Signing the hugely talented Italian international Emmanuele Giaccherini was a huge coup for Sunderland though.
Paolo DiCanio would be the favourite to be the first manager to be sacked if it wasn't for Mark Hughes. After his disastrous spell at QPR last season, he has now got the job at Stoke, replacing long term boss Tony Pulis. Pulis was deeply unpopular among neutrals for the way he set Stoke out to play, with their focus on long balls and physical aggression. It was an effective system although last season it looked like other teams had finally worked out how to beat them and Stoke struggled. With Pulis' popularity among Stoke supporters plummeting as he didn't seem to have a plan b, it seemed logical for Stoke and him to part company.
Mark Hughes record doesn't inspire confidence though. He employed similar tactics to Pulis when he was at Blackburn, he walked out on Fulham after one season saying he wanted a bigger club, moved to QPR and effectively doomed them to relegation. Hughes transfer policy at Stoke this summer has at least been restrained. Stoke have signed just two players, both defenders. This is a bit puzzling though as they already had one of the strongest defences in the premiership and signing the injury prone left back Erik Pieters and the unproven youngster Marc Muniesa isn't going to significantly improve that. Stokes main problem has been a lack of goals or creativity and so far that hasn't been addressed this summer. Unless this changes in the next two weeks Stoke look likely candidates for relegation.
Of the remaining two promoted sides, Hull look the better equipped to stay up. Manager Steve Bruce has made a number of good signings in defence and midfield. Hull struggled for goals last season though and new strikers Yannick Sagbo and Danny Graham are yet to convince that they can remedy this.
Crystal Palace look short of premiership quality. And despite selling star player Wilfried Zaha for 15m they don't seem to have the funds to change that. Manager Ian Holloway will provide entertainment as always, both on and off the pitch. But while him and his team should be fun to watch, that won't be enough to keep Palace up unfortunately.
At Liverpool, Brendan Rodgers has made a couple of decent signings this summer although arguably they haven't strengthened the team. They have replaced a very good keeper Pepe Reina with another, younger very good keeper Simon Mignolet. Letting Reina leave on loan was a strange decision although it suggests that Reina will be going to Barcelona next summer when they will need to replace the departing Victor Valdes. Kolo Toure joined on a free transfer to replace Jamie Carragher. Carragher retired and his experience and leadership will be a big loss to Liverpool. Toure has plenty of experience himself, but is only a short term replacement and a younger signing would have made more sense.
Upfront, Liverpool have signed two Spaniards, Iago Aspas and Luis Alberto. Both players have good goalscoring records from the Spanish second division, but Alberto has never played in the top flight while Aspas just has one season at that level. It will be interesting to see how much they can contribute at this stage especially with so much competition for places in attack.
Of course the future of star striker Luis Suarez will have an influence on this. Suarez has been pushing for a transfer all summer, saying he wants to play in the Champions League. Initially he also said he wanted to leave England, claiming he was being hounded by the media and ostracised by the FA but he changed tack when Arsenal seemed to be the only club interested. Arsenal have had three bids for Suarez rejected so far, with Liverpool determined not to sell, but their resolve could be tested if Arsenal raise their bid over 50m. Suarez's troubled disciplinary record makes him a risky signing, although he is undoubtedly one of the worlds most talented strikers and deserves to be playing in the Champions League. Liverpool cannot offer him Champions League football this season, although they can justifiably claim that with Suarez on board they could qualify for next season.
This aim would be helped if they can make the marquee signing they have been chasing all summer. So far Liverpool have failed as they were gazumped by Borussia Dortmund for their first target Henrikh Mhiktaryan, while Diego Costa has chosen to stay at Atletico Madrid. Their current target, Christian Eriksen has stated that he would only leave Ajax for another club in the Champions League. If Liverpool can hold onto Suarez and he knuckles down they should get fifth place but a big marquee signing could help them challenge for the top four. If they sell Suarez and fail to adequately replace him, or Suarez stays but sulks at not getting his move, Liverpool could struggle especially as they haven't strengthened their midfield or defence.
Tottenham are in a similar position to Liverpool, just outside the top four and struggling to hold onto their star player, in their case Gareth Bale. Real Madrid are after Bale and rumours of a bid of 100m or more are circulating. Like Suarez, Bale wants Champions League football and like Liverpool, Tottenham will claim that they can offer that next season if he stays. Last season, they were too reliant on Bale to win games for them and he scored many crucial goals for them. Manager Andres Villas Boas has attempted to relieve the pressure on Bale by signing Spanish striker Roberto Soldado and Moroccan winger Nacer Chadli. Soldado is a very good player but might need time to adjust to the Premiership, while Chadli will presumably play understudy to Bale on the left wing. Tottenham have also bolstered their midfield with two excellent signings, Paulinho and Etienne Capoue. These signings should see Tottenham at least challenge for a top four place, whether Bale stays or not could prove the difference in whether they are successful or not. At the moment it looks like Bale is leaving so sixth place looks likely.
Outside the top six are a number of teams in midtable, too good for relegation but not good enough for a European challenge.
Everton under new manager Roberto Martinez have made a couple of decent signings and if they can hold onto their star players should be good enough to finish as the best of the rest.
Norwich could surprise a lot of people this season as they have made a number of excellent signings. Lack of goals has been a problem since they were promoted in 2011, but the signings of Ricky VanWolfswinkel and Gary Hooper should sort that.
Swansea, led by the excellent Michael Laudrup look set to continue their steady progress. Playing in the Europa League this season could prove a distraction but they should still be good enough for a top-10 finish.
Newcastle will be looking to recover their form of 2011-12 and avoid the injury problems of last season. They still have arguably the strongest squad outside the big six, but lack of goals could be a problem again this season.
After a nervy first season under Paul Lambert, Aston Villa should be more comfortable this season. Christian Benteke deciding to stay was a huge boost and a couple of good signings mean they should progress to mid-table security.
Southampton, Fulham and West Ham should also finish comfortably in mid-table having made good signings this summer.
The remaining six sides will be fighting relegation. Cardiff look the strongest of the promoted sides and have made a couple of very impressive signings. They lacked goals last season though so releasing their top scorer was a risky move. They have put a lot of faith in new striker Andreas Cornelius and will need him to hit the ground running. If he doesn't work out Cardiff will be in trouble.
West Brom had an excellent 2011-12 far exceeding expectations but second-season syndrome could strike for manager Steve Clarke. Nobody will underestimate them this season. Meanwhile they have lost two of their main strikers including their top scorer, Romelu Lukaku. Their new signings Nicholas Anelka and Diego Lugano are both well past their best so this season will see West Brom struggle.
Sunderland are an enigma, they could finish anywhere between seventh and twentieth. Manager Paolo DiCanio is a loose cannon and anything could happen around him. His methods have been controversial and if the players don't respond well to them Sunderland will be in trouble. They have also made a lot of new signings this summer and they could take time to settle down together. QPR last season showed that buying so many new players at the one time can be a recipe for disaster. Signing the hugely talented Italian international Emmanuele Giaccherini was a huge coup for Sunderland though.
Paolo DiCanio would be the favourite to be the first manager to be sacked if it wasn't for Mark Hughes. After his disastrous spell at QPR last season, he has now got the job at Stoke, replacing long term boss Tony Pulis. Pulis was deeply unpopular among neutrals for the way he set Stoke out to play, with their focus on long balls and physical aggression. It was an effective system although last season it looked like other teams had finally worked out how to beat them and Stoke struggled. With Pulis' popularity among Stoke supporters plummeting as he didn't seem to have a plan b, it seemed logical for Stoke and him to part company.
Mark Hughes record doesn't inspire confidence though. He employed similar tactics to Pulis when he was at Blackburn, he walked out on Fulham after one season saying he wanted a bigger club, moved to QPR and effectively doomed them to relegation. Hughes transfer policy at Stoke this summer has at least been restrained. Stoke have signed just two players, both defenders. This is a bit puzzling though as they already had one of the strongest defences in the premiership and signing the injury prone left back Erik Pieters and the unproven youngster Marc Muniesa isn't going to significantly improve that. Stokes main problem has been a lack of goals or creativity and so far that hasn't been addressed this summer. Unless this changes in the next two weeks Stoke look likely candidates for relegation.
Of the remaining two promoted sides, Hull look the better equipped to stay up. Manager Steve Bruce has made a number of good signings in defence and midfield. Hull struggled for goals last season though and new strikers Yannick Sagbo and Danny Graham are yet to convince that they can remedy this.
Crystal Palace look short of premiership quality. And despite selling star player Wilfried Zaha for 15m they don't seem to have the funds to change that. Manager Ian Holloway will provide entertainment as always, both on and off the pitch. But while him and his team should be fun to watch, that won't be enough to keep Palace up unfortunately.
