With the usual caveat that a lot can still change with nearly three weeks left in the transfer window, here is my prediction for the season ahead:
1. Arsenal
2. Man City
3. Man United
4. Liverpool
5. Newcastle
6. Chelsea
7. Brighton
8. Aston Villa
9. Tottenham
10. West Ham
11. Bournemouth
12. Fulham
13. Nottingham Forest
14. Brentford
15. Crystal Palace
16. Burnley
17. Sheffield United
18. Everton
19. Luton
20. Wolves
After just missing out on the title last season, the
coming season feels like now or never for Arsenal. With Liverpool, Chelsea,
Manchester United and Newcastle all in varying stages of a rebuild, the title
looks to be between Arsenal and City. Arsenal have had a strong summer transfer
window with three excellent signings so far in Rice, Havertz and Timber, with
Raya on the way. The squad looks very strong with depth in all areas, if they
can regain their form of the first two thirds of last season, they will take
some stopping.
Manchester City could suffer a hangover after winning
the treble last season, only the second time an English team has done it.
Guardiola will be determined not to let standards slip but some loss of motivation
is possible. Gundogan’s departure is a big loss for the team and Kovacic, while
a decent player, isn’t exactly a like for like replacement. Without the goals
of Gundogan and Mahrez from midfield, the team will be even more reliant on
Haaland, any injury to him could be disastrous.
Manchester United recovered impressively after a disastrous
start last season, albeit helped by poor form of others. But in his second
season, and with more of his signings having joined this summer, manager Erik
Ten Hag will be expecting serious progress from his team which should see them
closer to the top two. The squad probably still isn’t quite strong enough to
properly challenge for the title though.
On paper, Liverpool should have one of the strongest
attacks in the premiership with real strength in depth across the forward line.
They have serious problems in the rest of the team though. With six midfielders
gone this summer and only two brought in so far, manager Jurgen Klopp will have
to come up with some tactical solution for the opening games. Expect
midfielders to arrive by the end of the window but they will need time to bed
in. A new right-back and centre-back would also help with their undermanned
defence. Get these transfers right and they could challenge for the title, but
more likely they will need more time and a 2024-25 title bid is more realistic.
Newcastle will hope to continue with the huge progress
made over the last 18 months. Summer signings have been underwhelming though.
Sandro Tonali has been the big one but Italians often don’t travel well and I wouldn’t
be surprised if he turned into another Aquilani, the much-vaunted Liverpool
signing of 2009 who made minimal impact before disappearing back to Italy.
Harvey Barnes is a good signing but I can’t help but feel he isn’t any better
than Saint-Maximin who he replaces while they have massively overpaid for the
unproven young full-back Tino Livramento. They will be solid again but probably
not quite enough to stay in the top four.
Chelsea have made a couple of interesting signings in
Christophe Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson who both have huge potential although
Nkunku will miss the start of the season through injury. The squad has been
left woefully unbalanced by all the departures this summer though. Plenty of
defenders, but just one goalkeeper, just two midfielders and no natural number
nine up front leaves glaring holes in the squad that will have to be filled for
them to achieve any success this season. Pochettino could be a good appointment
as manager, but he will need time to mold a team after such an overhaul of the
squad. And time is rarely given to Chelsea managers. There is still enough
talent in the squad to challenge for European places, but anything more than
that would be a big surprise at this stage.
Outside of the top six, Brighton and Aston Villa
should be the best of the rest. An excellent season for Brighton has seen
various players linked with moves to bigger clubs but so far only MacAllister
has left. And they have made a number of interesting signings. If they can hold
onto manager Roberto DiZerbi, expect another good season and a decent run in
their first season in European competition.
Some commentators have been talking up Aston Villa as
top four contenders. Their form in the second half of last season would support
that but I can’t see them maintaining that level of performance. Their squad is
still smaller than the teams above them and could be stretched by playing
European football. And they will be heavily reliant on Ollie Watkins up front
as there is a lack of obvious goal sources in the rest of the squad.
With top scorer Harry Kane surely on his way to Bayern
Munich and long-time captain Hugo Lloris also leaving this season will be one
of big change for Tottenham. New manager Ange Postecoglou has a big task to
keep them competitive. With no obvious replacement for Kane (and certainly not
within their price range) they will have to find ways to spread goals more
around the team. A lot of that responsibility will fall on Son Heung Min and
Richarlison who will both need drastic upturns in form after a disastrous season
last time out.
West Ham could finish anywhere between eighth and eighteenth.
They are the only club who at the time of writing haven’t made a single signing
while they have sold their captain and midfield heartbeat Declan Rice. With
their main striker Scamacca also departing and now speculation about playmaker Lucas
Paqueta they have found the transfer window difficult, and not helped by rumoured
unrest between management, the board and the new technical director. They are expected
to sign James Ward-Prowse and Edson Alvarez to replace Rice and Harry Maguire
to play in defence. They are all solid signings but not on the level of Rice,
and without further investment expect a season of stagnation at best.
Below them, any of the ten teams could conceivably face
relegation. Bournemouth and Fulham have been relatively quiet in the transfer
window but should have enough to stay in mid-table obscurity. It will be
interesting to see if new Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola can succesfully
follow in the footsteps of Arteta, Emery and Lopetegui all of whom hail from
the tiny Basque province of Gipuzkoa.
Manager Steve Cooper is probably relieved that Nottingham
Forest have had a quiet summer after the chaos of last years transfer window. With
a more settled squad they should finish safely in mid-table.
Brentford and Crystal Palace are likely to take a step
back this season in the absence of their star player. Brentford will be without
leading striker Ivan Toney at least until January following his suspension for
illegal betting and they will miss his goals and leadership greatly. They will
be hoping to muddle along until his return but it could be a struggle.
Meanwhile it’s the end of an era at Crystal Palace as Wilfried Zaha finally
left to try his hand at European football. As usual they lack firepower but at
least under Roy Hodgson they will be hard to beat. Questions remain over them
long term though as Hodgson is surely just a stop-gap.
The remaining five teams is where the real relegation battle
will happen. Burnley impressed in winning the Championship last season but the
premiership is a big step up. There will be no lack of enthusiasm but there is
a lack of top-flight experience which could prove costly. Their downfall when
being relegated in 2022 was a lack of firepower and they don’t seem to have
addressed this in the intervening year. Manager Vincent Kompany won many
plaudits last season but his previous top division experience with Anderlecht wasn’t
successful and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle at this level. There
should just about be enough quality in the squad to survive but it will be a
long, difficult season.
The other two promoted teams look very weak. Sheffield
United have lost their two best players this summer and with financial
troubles, spending on new players has been modest. Financial troubles could ensure
managerial stability though as they can’t necessarily afford to replace Paul Heckingbottom.
That could be the difference for them in helping them stay up.
Sean Dyche at Everton and new Wolves manager Gary O’Neil
are widely tipped to be the managers most in danger of losing their jobs
despite their records in keeping Everton and Bournemouth up last season. They haven’t
been helped by disastrous transfer windows. Everton’s only signings have been
veteran Ashley Young and loanee Arnaut Danjuma. Young will likely only be a squad
player while Danjuma wasn’t a success in his loan spell at Spurs last season.
Meanwhile they desperately need to strengthen the core of the team, a centre
back, a central midfielder and most particularly a striker are all needed.
Financial woes are also holding them back and fans annoyance with the board
could turn into all out conflict if the season starts badly.
Wolves’ summer has been an unmitigated disaster. They
have sold off a whole raft of first team players including their captain and their
longest serving players leaving the team short of not just numbers but
experience and knowhow. Wolves’ have said they had to do it to comply with
financial fair play but it is hard to see how such a limited and callow squad
have any chance of staying up. Manager Julen Lopetegui, after months of
speculation finally had enough and left this week leaving new man O’Neil to
pick up the pieces. O’Neil did an admirable job in keeping Bournemouth up last
season but this task looks impossible.
Last but not least, Luton Town will finally play their
first premier league season after just missing out by being relegated in 1992.
With a young and inexperienced squad, and without the financial resources to compete,
they are widely tipped to go straight back down. They will make a fight of it,
but the lack of quality will tell in the end.
