That is the question most Arsenal fans have been pondering over the last couple of seasons. Speculation over Arsene Wenger's future as manager of Arsenal has intensified this season especially after cup exits against Bradford and Blackburn but also as a result of the clubs struggles in the premiership and champions league.
Wenger, in his 17th season as Arsenal manager is the second longest serving manager in England. In that time, Arsenal have never finished outside the top four; indeed in Wengers first nine years as manager, they never even finished outside the top two. That was a remarkable achievement by Wenger and should be acknowledged, especially given the frequency during those years when Arsenal were expected to falter under the challenge of other clubs such as Leeds, Chelsea and Liverpool. The problem now is that while Arsenal, who are currently fifth, still have a strong chance of finishing in the top four this season, the club has never looked so far away from winning a trophy or challenging for the league.
So what has gone wrong?
This season has seen Arsenal knocked out of both cups by lower division opposition, the first time they have been knocked out by lower division opponents during Wengers time as manager. While you could forgive defeat by Blackburn, who are just one division below Arsenal, and were only relegated from the premiership last season, defeat by Bradford is far more unfathomable. Bradford are in the fourth tier of English football, 75 places below Arsenal. It was a game Arsenal should have won comfortably, but they had to come back from two goals down and then lost on penalties.
Arsenal have also suffered from a seeming inability to play from the start of a match or consistently well throughout. On several occasions this season the team havent started playing properly until the second half or relied on a few minutes of magic to get them through. By and large they have got away with this against weaker teams. Against stronger teams though they have been exposed and left with first half deficits that they couldn't surmount.
This all points to a lack of leadership and drive both on and off the pitch. Club captain Thomas Vermaelen is a fine defender but he is not vocal enough to be captain. He doesn't inspire or drive his team forward the way a captain should. And the responsibility of being captain seems to have weighed him down, with his performances dipping since becoming captain last summer following Robin VanPersies departure. The only player currently at Arsenal who does inspire and attempt to galvanise the team is Jack Wilshere. While he is a great player, at the age of 21, he is too young to bear that responsibility on his own.
Wengers transfer strategy, prioritising youth, potential and technical ability together with a rigid adherence to a certain style of play has led to signings such as Ramsey, Walcott, Chamberlain, Jenkinson, Gervinho. In the past two years, he has started to combine these younger signings with some more experienced ones such as Podolski, Cazorla, Arteta and Mertesacker. What all these players lack though is the strength of character, the spirit and determination to lead a team and drive it on to success even when it isn't playing well.
You have to ask why Wenger showed no interest in signing Scott Parker in 2011. He was available on the cheap from West Ham who had just been relegated, he had just won player of the season, was willing to take a pay cut and wanted to play champions league football which Arsenal could offer him. Instead he ended up at Tottenham who couldn't. Parker, a good all round midfielder would have helped bolster the midfield. Instead Arsenal signed Mikel Arteta, a decent player with more technical ability than Parker, but who unlike Parker won't do the physical work needed in a premiership midfield. When Arsenal then sold Alex Song in 2012, without replacing him, they were then left without any real physical presence in midfield or protection for the defence. It means Arsenal rely on technical ability to get round opposing teams, but leaves them with a soft core and a more vulnerable defence.
Yet it is obvious that Wenger doesn't see that as a problem, he has been quoted as saying that defensive midfielders are no longer needed in modern football. Considering the weakness of the Arsenal defence, it is blatantly obvious that a defensive midfielder is needed to sit in front of the defence and help it out. Wenger is a manager that has never been too concerned about the defensive side of the game. When he first became Arsenal manager in 1996, he didn't need to worry too much about the defence. The famous Arsenal back six had been the best defence in England for years, established by George Graham who was Arsenal manager from 1986-95. But as the defence aged, they had to be replaced and the Arsenal defence has largely struggled since. Sol Campbell filled the gap for a while and moving Kolo Toure from midfield to centre back was a master stroke. But signings such as Pascal Cygan, Phillippe Senderos, William Gallas and Sebastian Squillaci have been disastrous.
But more than bad players being a problem, it has been the defensive system, or lack of, that has been the problem. Under Wenger, Arsenal have tended to focus on playing the offside trap, and it has been more successful than most people seem to realise. But when it fails, it fails miserably. A good offside trap utterly relies on total communication between defenders which in the days of Adams and Keown was almost telepathic. That level of communication is obviously not there anymore. Meanwhile the fullbacks tend to push too far up the pitch in their drive to attack which leaves the centre-backs vulnerable. When they move wide to cover the fullbacks, they leave large spaces through the centre, which obviously isnt helped by the lack of a defensive midfielder. Tottenham exploited this very effectively in the recent game where both Tottenham goals were the result of a poor offside trap combined with centre backs leaving space in the middle.
This is something Wenger has to sort out. When Steve Bould was appointed assistant manager last summer, it was expected that he would work on improving the defensive organisation. And when Arsenal started the season with three clean sheets in three matches, it was thought that he had had an effect. But since then Arsenal have reverted to their old problems, while rumours have emerged of a split between Bould and Wenger. Maybe Wenger is too set in his ways to accept the change that needs to happen. Bould seems a more forthright assistant than his predecessor Pat Rice, so maybe Wenger is resisting him. Its impossible for me to say.
Outside the transfer window, Wenger cannot bring in new players before the end of the season, but he can try and sort out the teams defensive strategy. He needs to let Bould work with the defence on that. Arsenal have a reasonable run of fixtures coming up, which they can use to put pressure on Chelsea and Tottenham in the race for third. Now is not the time to decide whether Wenger should leave, but certainly at the end of the season, his situation has to be reviewed. Wengers current contract is due to run out in 2014. Maybe next season should be used by the club to have Wenger groom his successor, whether it is Steve Bould as has been suggested or someone else. Whatever happens, such has been Wengers influence on Arsenal, his departure will be a huge change and could require a long period of adjustment.
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