2025-26 Premier League Predictions

1.     Arsenal

2.     Liverpool

3.     Man City

4.     Chelsea

5.     Aston Villa

6.     Tottenham

7.     Brighton

8.     Newcastle

9.     Man Utd

10. Fulham

11. Everton

12. Nottingham Forest

13. West Ham

14. Crystal Palace

15. Bournemouth

16. Wolves

17. Leeds

18. Brentford

19. Sunderland

20. Burnley

The title is a toss up between Arsenal and Liverpool. They have the strongest first elevens and arguably the strongest squads and both look stronger than last season when they were comfortably the two best teams. To win the title this time Arsenal will need a reversal of the rotten luck with injuries they had last season while they will also desperately need better refereeing. Greater squad depth after a strong transfer window will help Arsenal deal better with injuries, but with dodgy refereeing decisions costing Arsenal at least 10 points last season they will need improvement there.

Liverpool start as the team to beat and they have spent massively on improving their team. Florian Wirtz is the pick of their new signings and he should lighten the load on Mo Salah. There are small question marks over their defence though after an unconvincing pre-season. With Quansah sold and Gomez injured they currently have no back-up for VanDijk and Konate. Presumably that will be addressed before the end of the transfer window, but as it stands, Liverpool are one defensive injury away from trouble.

Manchester City still look like the best of the rest despite a relatively unconvincing transfer window so far. Reijnders, Cherki and Ait-Nouri all look like good signings but they are different style of players than those they are replacing which would suggest tactical change by Guardiola. They have also failed to strengthen an injury-prone defence that let them down badly last season. January defensive signings Vitor Reis and Khusanov made little impact and Reis has now gone out on loan. As long as they can get the right service to Haaland, they will always have a chance of winning trophies but they are in danger of becoming too reliant on him to bail them out.

Chelsea have yet again spent a fortune in this transfer window on another random selection of signings with still no coherent sense of a first XI. Their two new strikers are unproven at this level, Joao Pedro hardly set the world alight at Brighton while Liam Delap was relegated with Ipswich, whether they can make the step up to Chelsea’s level remains to be seen. And while they have plenty of options in defence, none of them are particularly convincing, while the goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is an obvious weak link. If they can get the attack firing they should have enough individual talents to make top four again but I can’t see them challenging for the title.

Below them there are four big teams who would expect to challenge for the top four on a regular basis but all still have question marks over them.

Aston Villa struggled to combine champions league football with the premier league last season. It was noticeable their form improved significantly after the group stage. This season in the Europa League they should be able to rotate their team more, keeping key players fresh for the league. They have had a relatively quiet transfer window, not helped by having to fit with financial rules which could also see them having to sell a big player before the window ends. Nevertheless, they have enough for a strong season.

Tottenham’s season will depend on how well new manager Thomas Frank fits in at his first job outside Brentford. He did a fantastic job getting Brentford promoted and keeping them up but at Tottenham he will no longer be the underdog. Tottenham will be expected to dominate and beat most teams. Tottenham have quietly built an impressive squad over the last couple of years and with a strong emphasis on youth that will benefit them in the long run. Finally winning a trophy last season should help them move forward as well even if their late collapse in the European Supercup shows they still haven’t completely shed their Spursy habits.

Brighton will hope to ensure the big teams don’t have everything their own way. Another impressive transfer window, while for now holding onto all their key players has left them with a very strong squad. They will need more consistency and some more goals from their strikers would be a big help.

Newcastle’s season hinges on what happens over the next two weeks with their star striker Alexander Isak. Isak wants to leave, but has few options to go to. If it had been earlier in the window, Arsenal and Liverpool would have been obvious options, but both have spent big on other strikers instead. Liverpool are still being linked with him although its hard to see how they can still afford him and certainly not at the price Newcastle are demanding. The dilemma for Newcastle is, do they sell him below their asking price or do they keep him and hope he changes his mind about refusing to play for them. Otherwise, the club have had a nightmare of a transfer window with several players turning them down in favour of other clubs, including potential replacements for Isak in Sesko and Ekitike. At this late stage of the window, its hard to see who Newcastle could sign to replace Isak and the best result for them would seem to be to get one more year out of Isak and then let him leave next summer. If Isak stays and plays, they could challenge strongly for top four. Without him or a top replacement and they could struggle to make top 10.

Man United are a bit of an unknown. Surely they have to be better than last season but how much better is hard to say. Despite all the warnings before the transfer window about lack of funds, they have spent significantly on three new forwards, Sesko, Cunha and Mbeumo and are being linked with a big money move for Brighton midfielder Carlos Baleba. How they fit all their attacking players into a coherent team remains to be seen. Also cant help feel they have spent huge amounts of money replacing some of their best attacking players while ignoring problems in defence and midfield. After such a woeful season, manager Ruben Amorim is under huge pressure to show progress but if he finally gets the team playing the way he wants they should have enough for an upper half finish but its impossible to see them challenging for champions league places.

Fulham, Everton, Nottingham Forest and West Ham should all be safe in mid-table. Fulham have taken the if it aint broke don’t fix it approach to their squad this summer. Everton have made some good signings, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish in particular and should comfortably avoid the relegation fears of recent years. Twelfth will seem like a disappointment for Nottingham Forest after last season but it would seem a more accurate reflection of their strength and they will also have the challenge of European football to contend with. Manager Graham Potter is under pressure at West Ham after failing to oversee any significant improvement over the course of last season. Summer signings have been solid but unspectacular and they still look short upfront but with a strong defence and midfield, they should be hard to beat.

Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Wolves have all had a very difficult summer transfer window and its hard to see them making much progress this season. Crystal Palace’s season will hinge on whether they keep or sell their captain Marc Guehi and their playmaker Eberechi Eze who are both being linked with big moves. The rest of their team has enough talent to avoid relegation trouble but nothing more. Bournemouth have lost four fifths of their defence this summer and as of writing still haven’t replaced their two departed centre backs. Without knowing who their new defence will be its hard to definitively judge them but even if new signings all work out they will need time to adjust. Wolves have continued their trend of recent years of selling their top players and bringing in cheap replacements. Eventually this policy is going to fail them but they will just about have enough this season.

After winning the Championship last season, Leeds look like the strongest of the promoted teams and manager Daniel Farke has plenty of experience at this level. With a couple more signings, they should be best placed to avoid relegation.

Unfortunately I think this will be the end of the road for Brentford in the premier league. Its been a fairytale rise for a well-run club but losing their manager, their captain, their goalkeeper and their two best forwards is too big a blow to recover from. New goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher is talented but Jordan Henderson (who replaced captain Norgaard) is over the hill and as of writing they have made no forward signings.

The other two promoted sides Sunderland and Burnley just don’t look strong enough for this level. Sunderland have signed some impressive young players with Habib Diallo being a real coup but question marks over ageing new full-backs Reinildo and Masuaku and a lack of premier league experience in the squad. Burnley have largely stuck with the players who won promotion and manager Scott Parker has experience at this level. But the squad looks weak in attack and they wont be able to rely on their defence the way they did last season, especially with talented young goalkeeper James Trafford gone to Man City.

2024-25 Post Season Review

I didn't think Liverpool would challenge for the title immediately under new manager Arne Slot but in the end Liverpool coasted to the title. They were the most consistent team over the season and were able to take advantage of the struggles of Arsenal and Manchester City. While there were some minor tactical tweaks to the team, this was the squad assembled by predecessor Jurgen Klopp as the only new signing, Federico Chiesa made little impact. With so little change in personnel, it was a smooth transition from Klopp to Slot and the team deserved the title.

By contrast, it was a difficult season for Arsenal and Manchester City though. Arsenal's season-long injury crisis meant they were never able to field a full strength team and exposed a lack of squad depth, especially in attack. Arsenal are also right to feel aggrieved at a number of terrible refereeing decisions that cost them points including in key games against Liverpool and Manchester City. The gap between Arsenal and Liverpool was big enough that better refereeing probably wouldn't have  seen Arsenal win the title but at least there would have been a closer title race instead of the boring procession we got.

That aforementioned match between Arsenal and Manchester City was seen as a major turning point in City's season as their key player Rodri went off injured and didn't play again this season. While his injury was a significant factor in their subsequent drastic drop in form, it is not the whole answer. In truth, City were never wholly convincing this season from the very beginning and got lucky with some of their early results. Too many players in an ageing squad looked like they have too many miles on the clock and there will be big changes expected this summer. The squad overhaul started in January with nearly £200m spent on new young players and they will be sure to spend significantly again in this transfer window. How they are allowed to spend so freely when they have 115 charges still hanging over them related to financial mismanagement is another question.

Outside of the top three there was a closely fought battle for the remaining European places with up to nine teams seemingly in the hunt at different stages of the season. Chelsea and Newcastle eventually prevailed in finishing fourth and fifth, securing champions league football.

Given Chelsea's expenditure over recent seasons, fourth should have been the minimum expected of them but they left it late. Manager Enzo Maresca has failed to impress so far with his patient tactical style and he is still to work out his first XI. With more squad changes expected it could be another while before he works out his first XI, time that he might not have unless they start next season well. At a minimum, Chelsea will be expected to be a lot closer to the top three from the start.

Newcastle looked solid without being spectacular all season long but nearly contrived to throw away champions league football with a nervy end to the season. They achieved their goal of European football and picked up a trophy along the way. They will need reinforcements though as 2023-24 proved their small squad struggles to cope when playing in Europe.

Aston Villa in sixth will feel very hard done by missing out on champions league after the terrible refereeing mistake which cost them a goal in their final game. Their inconsistent form for much of the season had left them playing catch-up in the race for Europe though and their good run of form at the end came too late. Champions League quarter finalists on their first season in the competition was a fantastic result for them though. The Europa League next season will feel like a step down but is probably a better reflection of their abilities. 

Nottingham Forest will feel a sense of disappointment in finishing seventh and qualifying for the Conference League after spending most of the season in the top four. But the reality is that even that is a big overachievement when most people, myself included had expected them to struggle. They should go far in the conference league but will have to be careful that it doesn't affect their league form.

Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford and Fulham all impressed this season, playing good football under progressive young managers. They all seemed to be in the race for Europe but ultimately fell away a bit as the long season took its toll. If they can hold on to their managers and key players there is no reason why they shouldnt be able to continue their fine progress.

Crystal Palace had a quiet season in the league, recovering from a poor start to finish comfortably in mid-table. The story of their season though is the FA cup win, a first trophy in their history. This will also mean a first foray into Europe. They will need to be smart this summer to strengthen their squad to deal with the twin challenges of Europe and the league, especially if key players like Guehi and Eze depart.

Below Palace were the strugglers. Everton slogged their way through under Sean Dyche until being lifted by the return of David Moyes who ensured they kept clear of any threat of relegation. Their new stadium looks impressive but the playing squad desperately needs investment if the new manager bounce is to continue into next season.

Wolverhampton Wanderers somewhat flew under the radar this season. Gary O'Neil had done very well in keeping them up last season but after a poor start this season was fired in December. His successor Vitor Pereira got the team playing and got the results to get them clear of trouble. Another season in the lower part of the table will be the expectation for next season.

Much was expected of West Ham this season after heavy investment in players and a new manager Julen Lopetegui last summer. Lopetegui didn't last long though amid poor results and frustration at the playing style. His successor Graham Potter didn't fare any better and they were lucky that the teams below them happened to be so poor otherwise relegation could have been a real danger.

The three promoted teams, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton endured a miserable season and all go straight back down. After so long away, Ipswich at least seemed to enjoy the occasion but more was expected from Leicester and Southampton. But it shows the growing gulf in quality between the premiership and the championship and its growth even in just the year that Leicester and Southampton were away. Next season, Leeds and Burnley are back after short spells in the championship while Sunderland make a long awaited return. Its hard to see them faring much better than this seasons trio though.

Meanwhile, whole books could be written about the disastrous seasons of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs, fifteenth and seventeenth in the league respectively. 

As expected, Erik Ten Hag didn't last much longer in Manchester but nobody could have foreseen how poor they would fare under his successor Ruben Amorim. Amorim, so highly regarded for his work with Sporting in Portugal, had been heavily linked with Liverpool last summer who must now be thinking they had a lucky escape. Just four points off top four when he took over in November, Man United ended up 27 points off the top four. With a mishmash squad of old and past it stars such as Casemiro and Eriksen, overawed youngsters like Yoro and players who just arent good enough like Hojlund, its hard to see how things get better for them anytime soon. The squad needs a massive rebuild and without European football, unwanted players on huge wages and debt problems, its hard to see how they will fund it. Its difficult to see how things can get worse for United, but they could be about to find out. After the horrors of this season, their worst in decades, Amorim will need a good start to next season or he will be gone. At the same time, the clubs ownership needs to work better, hiring and firing wildly different managers and bringing in different players for each of them is clearly not working.

Tottenham can point to winning the Europa League as a sign of success this season and a first trophy in nearly twenty years is a significant achievement. Most people scoffed when manager Ange Postecoglou made the bold claim that he always wins a trophy in his second season. But their domestic form was embarrassing to say the least, and tactically, Postecoglou often looked completely out of his depth as Spurs were regularly outplayed. It was a shocking drop off in form for a team that was close to reaching champions league football last season. Injuries were a mitigating factor this season but they will have to do a lot better next season with what on paper at least looks like a decent squad.

I'm Still Here - devastating film on the psychological impact of military dictatorship

I’m Still Here is a devastating film that delves into the experience of people living under military dictatorship in Brazil the 1960’s and 70’s while also resonating in the here and now.

The film focuses on the family of Rubens Paiva, a former Labour party congressman who fled into exile after being removed from congress following the 1964 military coup. The film begins after his return to Brazil and much of the early part of the film depicts his happy middle class family life. The family live by the beach in Rio de Janeiro and spend happy days there with friends. They enjoy sports and games, listen to popular music, go to the cinema, have parties.

But while the family seem happy, in the background, Rubens is in regular contact with the underground left-wing resistance. Rubens and his wife Eunice worry about the future and the safety of their children and ponder whether to go back into exile. Their oldest daughter who is becoming increasingly politically aware is sent away to London to keep her safe. And while the film presents the Paiva’s as a happy, comfortable family, the threat of the military regime is a constant presence with military helicopters flying overhead, trucks on the streets and checkpoints on the roads.

The film turns with Rubens’ arrest by the military police in January 1971. For days afterwards, military police remain in the Paiva’s home while offering no information on Rubens’ whereabouts. Then Eunice and their 15-year-old daughter Eliana are also arrested and brought to military prison for questioning. While Eliana is released after a day, Eunice spends days in the prison as her interrogators demand information on supposed left-wing terrorists. In the background we hear the screams of other prisoners being tortured and see their blood on the floors. To the viewers and Eunice’s horror, we can only speculate if Rubens or Eliana are among those screaming or bleeding.

Eunice is eventually released but with still no information on the whereabouts of her husband. As Eunice searches for answers, she hides her fears to protect her children and continues to project a façade.

The film becomes a harrowing portrayal of how the uncertainty of not knowing whether Rubens is alive or dead becomes a psychological torture worse than the grief of loss. Fernanda Torres who plays Eunice, gives an astonishing performance in conveying this struggle. The film title references Eunice’s persistence in her struggle for answers and for justice. For so many thousands of families in Brazil and across much of South America during this time, this uncertainty continued for decades with no answers. Assuming that their loved ones had been killed but without the closure of knowing for sure or being able to bury them. This taps into experiences felt in so many countries around the world where violent repressive regimes have been or are in power.

And while the film addresses a particularly dark period in Brazilian history, it also speaks to issues today. Much of director Walter Salles earlier work has addressed political themes including his 2004 biopic of a young Ché Guevara, The Motorcycle Diaries. But with his first narrative film in 12 years, Salles clearly wants to draw connections between the historical events of the film and recent and current events in Brazil and around the world. It is not so long ago that Jair Bolsonaro was president of Brazil, a far-right president who openly harked back to the days of military rule. While Bolsonaro was eventually defeated, him and his politics still have support in Brazil. The far-right in Brazil have relentlessly attacked the film while defending the dictatorship. The film however, has been a massive hit in Brazil and the renewed attention the film has brought has pushed the Brazilian authorities to finally legally recognise the violent, unlawful death of Rubens Paiva over 50 years after he was killed, helping to demonstrate the influence that art can have.

Ultimately the film is also a reminder of the challenges for the left when coming up against the machinery of the capitalist state and the measures the state can resort to when it feels threatened. The left cannot rely on just a few good people in parliament, it needs the support and strength of mass movements of people in order to challenge the state and bring about real change.

Mickey 17 - scabrously entertaining film of class struggle

Mickey 17 is the fascinating new film by Korean auteur Bong Joon Ho, following on from the huge success of his 2019 Oscar-winning film Parasite. While carrying many of the same themes as Parasite, Mickey 17 is much larger in scope to go with its significantly bigger Hollywood budget, the biggest Bong has worked with to date.

Mickey 17 follows the story of Mickey Barnes, who together with his business partner Timo join an interplanetary colonising mission to escape murderous debt collectors on Earth. Without reading the fine print, Mickey signs up to be an expendable on board the four-year mission to the planet Niflheim. As Mickey dutifully explains through voiceover, he quickly realises an expendable is there to carry out the most dangerous jobs on board the ship. This includes exposing himself to deadly radiation, testing out vaccines and being fed experimental food and medicines. As an expendable, each time Mickey dies, his body is reprinted and his memories reimplanted within 24 hours. Mickey 17 thus, is the seventeenth iteration of Mickey Barnes.

Complications ensue however when Mickey 17 is left for dead on the frozen planet Niflheim. He survives and returns to the ship only to find that Mickey 18 has already been printed. The presence of two Mickey Barnes sets up a brilliant dual performance by English actor Robert Pattinson who manages to clearly delineate the two Mickeys with different personalities. Pattinson is best known for his roles in blockbusters such as Twilight and The Batman but has also had a far more interesting career outside the mainstream in works by auteur directors such as David Cronenburg and Claire Denis.

The presence of Mickey 17 and Mickey 18 however violates the strict rules against multiples after the case of a serial killer using multiples of himself to commit murders while escaping justice. If Mickey 17 and Mickey 18 are to coexist, they will have to escape the attentions of the mission’s leader, the failed politician, Kenneth Marshall. Marshall, having been voted out on Earth, decides to colonise Niflheim where he dreams of a perfect world inhabited by a new, white, super-race. Although director Bong Joon Ho has stated that Marshall is not a reference to any particular politician, Kenneth Marshall, as played in a skin-crawling performance by Mark Ruffalo, does seem to combine the genocidal rhetoric of Adolf Hitler with the clownish mannerisms and vanity of Donald Trump. Marshall is accompanied at all times by the Lady Macbeth like figure of his wife Ylfa, played by Toni Collette, who guides him and soothes his ego. There is also a wholly unnecessary side-plot in which Ylfa is on a quest to find the perfect sauce to serve with dinner.

A particularly memorable dinner scene with the Marshalls and Mickey 17, in which Mickey is served steak contrasts sharply with the indistinguishable slop Mickey is accustomed to in the rations. With the mission taking longer than expected and supplies starting to run low, of course as an expendable, Mickey had been subjected to much reduced rations of slop compared to other crew members.

The film does start to fray with a chaotic final act after Kenneth Marshall decides to exterminate the native creatures, so-called creepers, from Niflheim. But it fits in with much of Bong Joon Ho’s work which has often looked at human’s destructive relationship with nature. Indeed, as a film, Mickey 17 brings together so many of the themes explored in his previous works such as Korean language pictures Parasite and The Host as well as his Hollywood co-productions Snowpiercer and Okja.

The overarching theme of Mickey 17 though is class struggle and how workers are treated as expendable under capitalism. Mickey 17 is the extreme example but there is a clear divide in the film between those who do the work on the ship and those who are in control. The film also references the MAGA movement’s slavish devotion to Trump as plenty of people are on the ship because they believe in Kenneth Marshall and will happily follow him to the ends of the universe (literally).

The film has faced some criticism for not focusing more on the ethical questions around reprinting humans, or on Mickeys experience of dying. Characters ask Mickey what it is like to die, and he has no answer. In truth I think there are so many themes and questions in this film, it can be hard to focus on any one of them. Certainly, Mickey 17 as a film is not as sharp or tightly focused as Parasite in its political edge, but it is still fascinating to watch and scabrously funny. And while there have been concerns by film industry insiders that Mickey 17 will not recoup its enormous budget, Bong Joon Ho’s reputation as a brilliant film-maker remains intact.