1. Arsenal
2. Liverpool
3. Man City
4. Chelsea
5. Aston
Villa
6. Tottenham
7. Brighton
8. Newcastle
9. Man
Utd
10. Fulham
11. Everton
12. Nottingham
Forest
13. West
Ham
14. Crystal
Palace
15. Bournemouth
16. Wolves
17. Leeds
18. Brentford
19. Sunderland
20. Burnley
The title is a toss up between Arsenal and Liverpool. They
have the strongest first elevens and arguably the strongest squads and both
look stronger than last season when they were comfortably the two best teams.
To win the title this time Arsenal will need a reversal of the rotten luck with
injuries they had last season while they will also desperately need better refereeing.
Greater squad depth after a strong transfer window will help Arsenal deal
better with injuries, but with dodgy refereeing decisions costing Arsenal at
least 10 points last season they will need improvement there.
Liverpool start as the team to beat and they have spent
massively on improving their team. Florian Wirtz is the pick of their new
signings and he should lighten the load on Mo Salah. There are small question
marks over their defence though after an unconvincing pre-season. With Quansah
sold and Gomez injured they currently have no back-up for VanDijk and Konate.
Presumably that will be addressed before the end of the transfer window, but as
it stands, Liverpool are one defensive injury away from trouble.
Manchester City still look like the best of the rest
despite a relatively unconvincing transfer window so far. Reijnders, Cherki and
Ait-Nouri all look like good signings but they are different style of players
than those they are replacing which would suggest tactical change by Guardiola.
They have also failed to strengthen an injury-prone defence that let them down
badly last season. January defensive signings Vitor Reis and Khusanov made
little impact and Reis has now gone out on loan. As long as they can get the
right service to Haaland, they will always have a chance of winning trophies
but they are in danger of becoming too reliant on him to bail them out.
Chelsea have yet again spent a fortune in this transfer window
on another random selection of signings with still no coherent sense of a first
XI. Their two new strikers are unproven at this level, Joao Pedro hardly set
the world alight at Brighton while Liam Delap was relegated with Ipswich,
whether they can make the step up to Chelsea’s level remains to be seen. And
while they have plenty of options in defence, none of them are particularly convincing,
while the goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is an obvious weak link. If they can get
the attack firing they should have enough individual talents to make top four again
but I can’t see them challenging for the title.
Below them there are four big teams who would expect to
challenge for the top four on a regular basis but all still have question marks
over them.
Aston Villa struggled to combine champions league football
with the premier league last season. It was noticeable their form improved
significantly after the group stage. This season in the Europa League they
should be able to rotate their team more, keeping key players fresh for the
league. They have had a relatively quiet transfer window, not helped by having
to fit with financial rules which could also see them having to sell a big
player before the window ends. Nevertheless, they have enough for a strong
season.
Tottenham’s season will depend on how well new manager Thomas
Frank fits in at his first job outside Brentford. He did a fantastic job getting
Brentford promoted and keeping them up but at Tottenham he will no longer be
the underdog. Tottenham will be expected to dominate and beat most teams.
Tottenham have quietly built an impressive squad over the last couple of years
and with a strong emphasis on youth that will benefit them in the long run.
Finally winning a trophy last season should help them move forward as well even
if their late collapse in the European Supercup shows they still haven’t completely
shed their Spursy habits.
Brighton will hope to ensure the big teams don’t have everything
their own way. Another impressive transfer window, while for now holding onto
all their key players has left them with a very strong squad. They will need
more consistency and some more goals from their strikers would be a big help.
Newcastle’s season hinges on what happens over
the next two weeks with their star striker Alexander Isak. Isak wants to leave,
but has few options to go to. If it had been earlier in the window, Arsenal and
Liverpool would have been obvious options, but both have spent big on other
strikers instead. Liverpool are still being linked with him although its hard
to see how they can still afford him and certainly not at the price Newcastle
are demanding. The dilemma for Newcastle is, do they sell him below their asking
price or do they keep him and hope he changes his mind about refusing to play
for them. Otherwise, the club have had a nightmare of a transfer window with
several players turning them down in favour of other clubs, including potential
replacements for Isak in Sesko and Ekitike. At this late stage of the window,
its hard to see who Newcastle could sign to replace Isak and the best result
for them would seem to be to get one more year out of Isak and then let him
leave next summer. If Isak stays and plays, they could challenge strongly for
top four. Without him or a top replacement and they could struggle to make top 10.
Man United are a bit of an unknown. Surely they have to be
better than last season but how much better is hard to say. Despite all the warnings
before the transfer window about lack of funds, they have spent significantly
on three new forwards, Sesko, Cunha and Mbeumo and are being linked with a big
money move for Brighton midfielder Carlos Baleba. How they fit all their
attacking players into a coherent team remains to be seen. Also cant help feel
they have spent huge amounts of money replacing some of their best attacking
players while ignoring problems in defence and midfield. After such a woeful
season, manager Ruben Amorim is under huge pressure to show progress but if he
finally gets the team playing the way he wants they should have enough for an
upper half finish but its impossible to see them challenging for champions league
places.
Fulham, Everton, Nottingham Forest and West Ham should all
be safe in mid-table. Fulham have taken the if it aint broke don’t fix it approach
to their squad this summer. Everton have made some good signings, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
and Jack Grealish in particular and should comfortably avoid the relegation fears
of recent years. Twelfth will seem like a disappointment for Nottingham Forest
after last season but it would seem a more accurate reflection of their strength
and they will also have the challenge of European football to contend with. Manager
Graham Potter is under pressure at West Ham after failing to oversee any
significant improvement over the course of last season. Summer signings have
been solid but unspectacular and they still look short upfront but with a strong
defence and midfield, they should be hard to beat.
Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Wolves have all had a very
difficult summer transfer window and its hard to see them making much progress
this season. Crystal Palace’s season will hinge on whether they keep or sell
their captain Marc Guehi and their playmaker Eberechi Eze who are both being
linked with big moves. The rest of their team has enough talent to avoid relegation
trouble but nothing more. Bournemouth have lost four fifths of their defence this
summer and as of writing still haven’t replaced their two departed centre backs.
Without knowing who their new defence will be its hard to definitively judge
them but even if new signings all work out they will need time to adjust. Wolves
have continued their trend of recent years of selling their top players and bringing
in cheap replacements. Eventually this policy is going to fail them but they
will just about have enough this season.
After winning the Championship last season, Leeds look like
the strongest of the promoted teams and manager Daniel Farke has plenty of experience
at this level. With a couple more signings, they should be best placed to avoid
relegation.
Unfortunately I think this will be the end of the road for
Brentford in the premier league. Its been a fairytale rise for a well-run club
but losing their manager, their captain, their goalkeeper and their two best forwards
is too big a blow to recover from. New goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher is talented
but Jordan Henderson (who replaced captain Norgaard) is over the hill and as of
writing they have made no forward signings.
The other two promoted sides Sunderland and Burnley just don’t
look strong enough for this level. Sunderland have signed some impressive young
players with Habib Diallo being a real coup but question marks over ageing new
full-backs Reinildo and Masuaku and a lack of premier league experience in the
squad. Burnley have largely stuck with the players who won promotion and
manager Scott Parker has experience at this level. But the squad looks weak in
attack and they wont be able to rely on their defence the way they did last
season, especially with talented young goalkeeper James Trafford gone to Man
City.
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